AGP Executive Report

Somalia Elections: Somalia’s presidential race is sharpening in Mogadishu, with four main contenders—Farmaajo, Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, Saacid, and businessman Omar Abdulkadir Ahmed Fiqi—while talks between the government and opposition shift toward a shared idea of direct voting, even as they argue over who runs elections and how much power states hold. Diplomacy & Somaliland: Egypt’s foreign minister reiterated Cairo’s full support for Somalia’s unity and rejected any move to recognize Somaliland as independent, warning it violates Somalia’s sovereignty. Regional Politics: Somalia’s foreign minister also spoke with Egypt about Horn of Africa developments, with both sides stressing support for Somalia’s national institutions. State Building & Industry: Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre laid a foundation stone for rebuilding the Ministry of Commerce and Industry headquarters in Mogadishu, saying it’s meant to modernize trade and boost industrial development. Security & Aid: A report says the US plans to stop UN support for the AU Somalia peace mission after this year, raising fears for operations against al-Shabaab. Humanitarian Climate: CARE warns “super” El Niño could hit women hardest, with Somalia among countries expected to see more severe rainfall.

Somalia Election Watch: Somalia’s presidential race is sharpening in Mogadishu, with four names repeatedly cited as top contenders to succeed Hassan Sheikh Mohamud: former presidents Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo and Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, former PM Abdi Farah Shirdon (Saacid), and businessman Omar Abdulkadir Ahmed Fiqi. Electoral Design Debate: A new comparison of Somalia’s four electoral models says the fight is no longer over whether citizens should vote directly, but over who runs elections, how much power federal states get, whether parties or individuals dominate, and how ready institutions are. Diplomacy on Somaliland: Egypt’s foreign minister reaffirmed Cairo’s full support for Somalia’s unity and rejected any recognition of Somaliland, warning it would violate Somalia’s sovereignty. Regional Integration: Somalia also wrapped up participation in an East African Community infrastructure ministers meeting in Arusha, backing regional projects to improve transport links and trade. Workplace Safety: Somalia’s National Civil Service Commission and trade unions launched training to build respectful, safe and professional workplaces in the public sector.

Somalia-Elections & Governance: Somalia’s federal government and opposition resumed direct talks on elections and the constitution, with the deputy prime minister saying they agreed to continue; meanwhile, Puntland criticized the push for “one-person, one-vote” and warned of legitimacy and process problems. Regional Diplomacy: Egypt rejected any recognition of “Somaliland” in calls with Somalia’s foreign minister, reaffirming support for Somalia’s unity and territorial integrity. Security & Foreign Training: Saudi Arabia is financing training for more than 5,000 Somali soldiers in Galmudug, raising concerns that foreign-backed programs could dilute the army’s unified doctrine. South West Administration: South West Somalia appointed a new 26-minister cabinet to boost security and public services. Economy & Trade Links: Somalia joined EAC ministers backing regional infrastructure projects, while Kenya endorsed trade facilitation reforms aimed at cutting cross-border business costs. Work & Migration Fallout (Somalia-linked): In the U.S., TPS work permits for Somalia and other countries were set to expire soon after Supreme Court action, though extensions were issued at the last minute.

Somalia Elections: Opposition and the federal government traded proposals in Mogadishu under UN support, with the Future Council backing a one-person-one-vote model using simultaneous voter registration and polling, while the government pushes ahead with a one-person-one-vote system but differs on procedures and implementation. Puntland Security: Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni warned opposition politicians and armed groups against moves he says are being mobilized by the federal government, stressing power can’t be seized by force. Workplace Safety in Public Service: Somalia’s National Civil Service Commission and FESTU launched a national training to build respectful, safe and professional workplaces across the public sector, supported by the World Bank’s RCRF programme. Maritime Cooperation: Somalia formalised an MoU with Egypt on maritime transport and ports, aiming to boost Red Sea and Gulf of Aden connectivity. Saudi Military Training: A Saudi delegation visited Galmudug camps where a Saudi-funded programme is training 5,107 Somali National Army soldiers. Media Freedom: NUSOJ condemned Puntland’s continued detention of journalist Suways Ga’ayte as politically motivated. US Visa Rules Impact: Updated US Visa Waiver rules mean some travellers with travel history including Somalia may need a visa instead of ESTA-free entry. US TPS Shock: In the US, TPS work permits for Somalia and others are set to expire soon, raising fears for employers relying on migrant labor.

Somalia-Elections: Somalia’s federal government and opposition resumed direct talks in Mogadishu on the electoral system and constitutional amendments, with the opposition pushing a one-person-one-vote model and the government focusing on drafting laws and setting up electoral institutions. Puntland Security: Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni warned opposition politicians and armed groups against trying to seize power by force, saying the federal government is mobilizing elements in Puntland. Maritime Cooperation: Somalia and Egypt signed a maritime transport and ports MoU, aiming to deepen Red Sea and Gulf of Aden cooperation and support Somalia’s national transformation plans. Regional Security Training: Saudi Arabia’s military delegation inspected Saudi-funded training camps in Galmudug for 5,107 Somali soldiers, including about 2,000 Puntland recruits, with foreign instructors involved. Tech & Security: Somalia’s National Communications Authority asked Meta to delay WhatsApp username rollout, citing risks of impersonation, fraud, and misuse by criminals and armed groups. Humanitarian/Media: Puntland journalists protested the detention of Suways Ga’ayte, with NUSOJ calling it arbitrary and politically motivated.

Somalia–AU Mission Funding: The U.S. move to block UN logistical support for AUSSOM in Somalia in 2027 is deepening a funding crisis for the AU-backed peace mission, which relies on UN help for basics like fuel, food and troop transport. Media Freedom in Puntland: NUSOJ condemned the arrest and detention of journalist Suways Ga’ayte in Garowe, saying it is arbitrary and politically motivated, and urged Puntland to release her. Digital Security: Somalia’s National Communications Authority asked Meta to delay WhatsApp username rollout, warning the feature could enable impersonation, fraud and scams. Regional Diplomacy: Somalia’s Cabinet approved MoUs with China, India, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, covering scholarships, human resources and political consultations. Maritime Security: A piracy resurgence warning from the IMB urged shipmasters to stay vigilant along the Somali coast and the Gulf of Aden after hijackings and suspicious approaches were reported earlier in 2026. Regional Peace Financing: AU Commission chair Mahmoud Ali Youssouf urged stronger, more reliable African political and financial support for AUSSOM to protect gains against al-Shabaab.

Somalia Peace Mission Funding: The AU’s AUSSOM peacekeeping force is facing a deeper crisis after the US moved to block UN financial support for Somalia in 2027, with AU leadership warning unpredictable funding could unravel gains against al-Shabaab. Regional Diplomacy: Somalia’s Cabinet approved MoUs with China, India, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, aiming to boost scholarships, consultations and cooperation under the National Transformation Plan. Elections & Mediation: Türkiye is reported to be helping broker dialogue between Somalia’s government and opposition as talks continue amid election deadlock concerns. Security & Politics: Somalia’s defence leadership rejected a Crisis Group assessment on al-Shabaab gains, while Puntland continues pushing back on federal election and resource-control moves. Human Impact: Clan fighting in Sool’s Madah-lagu Hoor has displaced hundreds and destroyed homes and livelihoods, leaving families struggling for food and water. Maritime Watch: A piracy resurgence warning urges vigilance along the Somali coast and Gulf of Aden as attacks show signs of returning.

Electoral Diplomacy: A renewed push to break Somalia’s election deadlock is underway, with a Turkish delegation holding separate meetings with Somalia’s federal government and opposition ahead of wider talks involving Western officials, after earlier mediation failed. Regional Mobility: IGAD has intensified consultations in Mogadishu on ratifying and implementing the IGAD Protocol on Free Movement of Persons, with workers and journalists discussing safer, orderly labour mobility and the IGAD Single Visa. Galmudug Elections: Somalia’s electoral commission has approved 35 political groups to compete in Galmudug elections, as the country moves toward a one-person, one-vote system. Security & Governance: Somalia’s federal government and opposition have agreed to continue inclusive political dialogue, thanking Turkey for facilitating talks. Digital Security: Somalia’s National Communications Authority has asked Meta to delay WhatsApp usernames rollout, warning it could enable fraud, impersonation and risks to mobile money. Humanitarian Fallout: Clan fighting in Sool’s Madah-lagu Hoor has displaced hundreds and destroyed livelihoods, leaving families struggling to access basic water and food. Climate Resilience: A $12m federal climate resilience project covering 17 cities is launched, but Northeastern areas were excluded, highlighting ongoing disputes over programme inclusion.

Electoral Process in Galmudug: Somalia’s Independent National Electoral and Boundaries Commission has approved 35 political organizations to take part in upcoming elections in Galmudug, as the country pushes toward direct voting under a one-person, one-vote system, though the plan remains politically contested. Diplomacy to Break the Deadlock: A renewed international push is underway to resolve Somalia’s electoral stalemate, with Turkey expected to hold separate meetings with the federal government and opposition ahead of broader Western-led talks; opposition figures warn Turkey may not be a neutral broker. Regional Mobility Plan: IGAD has launched consultations with Somali stakeholders to advance the IGAD Protocol on Free Movement of Persons, including work on interoperable IDs and a single visa roadmap. Digital Growth and Security: Somalia’s National Communications Authority signed an MOU with iRise Hub to support youth entrepreneurship and digital skills, and separately urged Meta to delay WhatsApp usernames over fraud and security risks. Security Funding Pressure: The AU’s Somalia stabilization mission faces major uncertainty as UNSOS support is set to end after U.S. moves to stop payments and block UN logistics, raising fears for operations against al-Shabaab.

Electoral Diplomacy: Turkey is pushing a renewed, Western-backed effort to break Somalia’s election deadlock, with Turkish officials holding separate talks with the federal government and opposition ahead of broader meetings—while Puntland and Jubaland boycotted Ankara-led sessions, arguing Turkey is not neutral. Regional Mobility: IGAD launched consultations in Mogadishu to fast-track the Protocol on Free Movement of Persons, including plans for an interoperable ID and a single visa framework. Security & Politics: Somalia’s defense minister sparked backlash by saying only al-Shabaab and the ruling JSP are real political contenders, a claim analysts warn could delegitimize peaceful opposition. Tech Governance: Somalia backed India’s objection to WhatsApp’s move toward username-based identification, saying it could hinder security agencies’ ability to track terrorism and organized crime. Piracy Watch: Reports say Somali pirate attacks are rising again in the Gulf of Aden, with renewed risk to shipping amid wider regional tensions. Funding Pressure: Somalia’s economic strain is deepening as U.S. security cuts hit financing for Somali institutions and the AU stabilization mission.

Somalia–Turkey Diplomacy: Turkey held preliminary talks with Somalia’s federal government and opposition ahead of Western-led negotiations, but Puntland and Jubaland boycotted, saying Ankara is not neutral and has backed Villa Somalia. Security & Counterterrorism: Somalia’s defence ministry rejected a Crisis Group report on al-Shabab, arguing the assessment is distorted and that any shifts in the group reflect pressure from Somali forces and partners. Elections Deadlock: Turkey’s push comes as international partners warn Somalia’s electoral dispute could deepen instability before October. Maritime Threats: UN and naval sources say Somali pirate attacks in the Gulf of Aden are spiking, raising risks for commercial shipping amid wider Red Sea tensions. Tech & Security: Somalia backed India’s objection to WhatsApp’s planned username feature, warning it could hinder security agencies’ identification of suspects and increase impersonation and fraud risks. Public Health: Africa CDC welcomed the start of a clinical trial for therapeutics against the Bundibugyo Ebola strain in DRC and Uganda. Climate Risk: UN agencies appealed for $200m+ to protect 8.8 million people in high-risk African countries as El Niño returns, including Somalia.

Somalia–Saudi Diplomacy: Somali Foreign Minister Abdisalam Abdi Ali and Saudi FM Prince Faisal bin Farhan reaffirmed Somalia’s sovereignty and unity, and stressed protecting maritime security and freedom of navigation. Security in Somalia: Reports say mortar shells hit parts of Baidoa during the inauguration of South West State leadership, with Turkish jets deployed and troops sent to the outskirts amid fears of an attack. Counterterrorism & Policy: Somalia backed India’s objection to WhatsApp’s new username feature, warning it could weaken security checks, enable impersonation, and increase fraud risks for Somalia’s mobile money ecosystem. Regional Stability Watch: A new EU asylum agency report warns Somalia’s security has worsened, citing Al-Shabaab expansion in several regions and political divisions undermining federal-state cooperation. Maritime Risks: The UN’s IMO council flagged renewed piracy off Somalia and Yemen and urged action to secure the release of hijacked seafarers. Aid & Climate Pressure: FAO and WFP appealed for $200m+ to protect 8.8 million people in high-risk countries, including Somalia, from the looming return of El Niño.

Somalia Security & Al-Shabaab: Somalia’s defense minister Ahmed Moallim Fiqi rejected claims the army has collapsed, saying troops remain on the front lines against al-Shabaab, as political debate grows over the country’s ability to sustain the fight. Foreign Troops & Funding: A phased drawdown of foreign troops in southern Somalia has begun, with documents citing fragile local stability, disrupted supply routes, and uncertainty after the U.S. moves to end support for the AU mission. Federal Politics & Elections: Somalia’s electoral commission delayed Galmudug and Banadir election timelines, moving Galmudug’s regional council and parliamentary vote from July 20 to July 25. Regional Tensions in Baidoa: Mortar shelling was reported in Baidoa during the inauguration of South West State leadership, with Turkish F-16s deployed and troops sent to the outskirts amid fears of an attack. Puntland vs Mogadishu Over Resources: Puntland says it alone can license natural resources and has banned Turkish fishing firm SOMTURK from operating without Puntland approval, escalating a dispute over maritime control. Maritime Risk: The IMO council opened in London with piracy off Somalia and Yemen back on the agenda, warning of renewed incidents and calling for the release of hijacked seafarers. Humanitarian Outlook: FAO and WFP appealed for $200m+ to protect millions in high-risk countries from El Niño impacts, listing Somalia among those most at risk.

AU Mission Under Pressure: The U.S. has started cutting back foreign troop support and is ending UN logistics funding for AUSSOM, raising fears the Somalia mission could face major disruption within weeks. Security Claims: Somalia’s defense minister rejected reports the army has collapsed, saying troops remain on the front lines against al-Shabab. Elections Delayed: Somalia’s electoral commission pushed back Galmudug’s council and parliamentary vote to July 25 and will review Banadir local commissioner timelines. Federal vs Puntland Rift: Puntland says it alone controls natural resources and has banned Turkish fishing firm SOMTURK, escalating a dispute over licensing and sovereignty. Diplomacy at Work: Somalia’s president met Somali-American mayor Nadia Mohamed, urging stronger U.S. ties and diaspora support. Regional Tensions: Kenya detained a senior Somali politician at JKIA over alleged passport fraud and security concerns. Independence Day Politics: Mohamud condemned Israel and urged Somalis to reject normalization, while election rhetoric appears to be cooling amid calls for dialogue.

Somalia–Puntland Power Struggle: Puntland says it alone has the constitutional right to manage and exploit natural resources in its territory and waters, rejecting any federal role in approving deals, and warns it will investigate and take legal action against unauthorized operators. Maritime Crackdown: Puntland has banned the Turkish fishing firm SOMTURK from operating in its waters without prior Puntland approval, escalating a dispute after Mogadishu had licensed the company. Federal–Regional Political Tensions: Puntland MPs accuse President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of violating the constitution and undermining federalism, calling for a transition process and warning against clan militias under the Somali National Army banner. Diplomacy Cooling: Somalia’s government and opposition rhetoric appears to be easing as regional partners push for dialogue, following President Mohamud’s recent meetings with Kenya and Ethiopia. U.S. Engagement: Mohamud met Somali-American St. Louis Park Mayor Nadia Mohamed in Mogadishu, urging stronger U.S.–Somalia ties and diaspora support for reconstruction. Humanitarian Update: KSrelief says its aid totals about $8.54 billion across 4,404 projects in 114 countries, including $257.17 million for Somalia. Security Funding Shock: Uganda’s UPDF commander in Somalia urged troops to tighten discipline as uncertainty grows over the AU mission after U.S. moves to cut UN logistical support.

Puntland-Federal Rift: Puntland MPs from both houses urged President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to step down, saying his term has expired and accusing Mogadishu of undermining Somalia’s federal system, including by recruiting security forces in Puntland and using clan militias under the Somali National Army. U.S.-UN Support Cut: Washington told the African Union it will end U.N. logistical and operational support for AUSSOM beyond December 2026 unless the UN Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS) is excluded, raising fresh fears for the fight against Al-Shabaab. Mogadishu-US Outreach: Somalia’s president met Somali-American St. Louis Park Mayor Nadia Mohamed, praising diaspora leadership and pushing for stronger U.S. ties in investment and reconstruction. Security/Politics in Puntland: Somalia’s Prime Minister said federal soldiers recruited in Puntland will keep receiving salaries and benefits, framing payments as a state obligation amid rising Mogadishu-Garowe tensions. Al-Shabaab Territory Dispute: Somalia’s foreign affairs state minister rejected an International Crisis Group report claiming Al-Shabaab regained territory in 2025, calling it incomplete and arguing Somalia is tackling security, state-building, and constitutional review at once. Regional Migration Pressure: As anti-immigrant unrest grows in South Africa, Somali migrants in the country say they prefer staying rather than returning home, while Nigeria warned South Africa that “all options remain on the table” over attacks on Nigerians.